A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in universities but scarcely any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the basics. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the status quo. Both writes two pieces that seek neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments cover identity markers, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the idea that there might be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster must engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
